The US midterms: Democrats won on Republican ground

Bigger than anyone expected

Going into Election Day, pollsters and prediction markets agreed that Democrats would take the House. The Senate was less certain. The map favoured Republicans: Democrats needed a net gain of four seats, several of them in states Trump won by more than ten points in 2024. On the eve of the election, Kalshi and Polymarket put the Democrats’ odds of winning the Senate at around 73–74 per cent.

It was never close. Democrats have so far flipped seven Republican Senate seats: North Carolina, South Carolina, Ohio, Texas, Kansas, Iowa and Maine. Two races, in Alaska and Mississippi, have yet to be called. The last time an opposition party won both chambers in a midterm was 2006, under George W. Bush.

Iowa and Kansas tell the real story

James Talarico has drawn the most national attention as the first Democrat to win a Senate race in Texas since 1988. Texas has been trending this way for years, though. Back in 2018, Ted Cruz held his seat by just 2.6 points.

Iowa says more. The state has voted Republican in every presidential election since 2016 and has not elected a Democratic senator since 2008. Trump carried Iowa by more than 13 points in 2024. This time Democrat Josh Turek won by just over four, a swing of roughly 17 points in two years. In Kansas, Adam Hamilton became the first Democrat elected to the Senate since 1932.

The shift reaches the statehouses

Republicans have dominated governorships and state legislatures since 2010. That era is over. Democrats won the governor’s races in Georgia, Iowa, Nevada, Ohio and Texas, and now hold a majority of the nation’s governorships for the first time in 16 years. In Texas, Gina Hinojosa defeated incumbent Governor Greg Abbott. She becomes the state’s first Democratic governor since Ann Richards left office in 1995, and the first Latina to hold the office.

Down the ballot, Democrats flipped the state senates in Wisconsin and Pennsylvania and the North Carolina House, among others. In Arizona, Republicans will be in the legislative minority for the first time in 60 years. The effects will outlast election night. States control redistricting, election administration and much of energy, health and environmental policy, and they are where each party builds its next generation of candidates.

A clear rebuke of Trump

The losses came despite the most expensive midterm cycle on record. According to a New York Times tally, Elon Musk alone spent $474 million to help Republicans, more than $200 million of it on the Texas Senate race. Trump also campaigned heavily in the battleground states. Through the fall, his approval sat at 35–39 per cent in the major polls, with around 60 per cent disapproving. Republican losses are on the scale of 2006 and 2008, the elections defined by the Iraq War and the financial crisis.

Expect parts of the party establishment to start distancing themselves from Trump without openly breaking with him. That goes especially for the two names most often mentioned as 2028 presidential contenders, JD Vance and Marco Rubio.

Data centers became a ballot issue

In about 40 local referendums on data centers, voters sided with restrictions almost everywhere. Only one, in Harwood, North Dakota, went the developers’ way. As early as September, 72 per cent of respondents in a Quinnipiac poll said they would oppose a new data centre near them. Analyses also show that Democratic support rose the closer voters lived to a planned data center. Several Democratic candidates ran on limiting new projects. Gina Hinojosa pledged to halt new data centers in Texas until the state puts safeguards in place.

If you are planning data centres, transmission lines or other large projects, take note. The national case for jobs and AI leadership carried little weight once voters concluded that the costs, on power bills, water and land, would land locally and the gains somewhere else. Siting is now a political question, and community support needs to be in place before the permit application goes in.

What happens next

On paper, Trump’s room to manoeuvre shrinks. Throughout his term, however, he has governed around Congress through executive orders, and a Democratic majority gives him even more reason to keep doing so. Democrats lack a two-thirds majority and cannot override his veto. Trump has said he expects to use the veto and that it usually ends in deals.

The biggest change will come in oversight. Democrats take the committee gavels, and with them budgets, staff and the power to compel testimony. Hakeem Jeffries, expected to become Speaker, promised during the campaign that Defense Secretary Pete Hegseth would have to go. Impeachment proceedings against Hegseth could come up when the new Congress convenes in January, although Trump says he intends to keep him. Party leaders have so far steered clear of a third impeachment of Trump.

Don’t expect major policy shifts. Voters cast their ballots on the cost of living and perceived corruption, and Democrats won more on discontent with Trump than on an agenda of their own.

Want to discuss what the election means for your business?
Contact oliver.rykatkin@halvarsson.se